35 research outputs found
Robust approximate Bayesian inference
We discuss an approach for deriving robust posterior distributions from
-estimating functions using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods.
In particular, we use -estimating functions to construct suitable summary
statistics in ABC algorithms. The theoretical properties of the robust
posterior distributions are discussed. Special attention is given to the
application of the method to linear mixed models. Simulation results and an
application to a clinical study demonstrate the usefulness of the method. An R
implementation is also provided in the robustBLME package.Comment: This is a revised and personal manuscript version of the article that
has been accepted for publication by Journal of Statistical Planning and
Inferenc
A note on marginal posterior simulation via higher-order tail area approximations
We explore the use of higher-order tail area approximations for Bayesian
simulation. These approximations give rise to an alternative simulation scheme
to MCMC for Bayesian computation of marginal posterior distributions for a
scalar parameter of interest, in the presence of nuisance parameters. Its
advantage over MCMC methods is that samples are drawn independently with lower
computational time and the implementation requires only standard maximum
likelihood routines. The method is illustrated by a genetic linkage model, a
normal regression with censored data and a logistic regression model
Approximate Bayesian Computation with composite score functions
Both Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) and composite likelihood methods
are useful for Bayesian and frequentist inference, respectively, when the
likelihood function is intractable. We propose to use composite likelihood
score functions as summary statistics in ABC in order to obtain accurate
approximations to the posterior distribution. This is motivated by the use of
the score function of the full likelihood, and extended to general unbiased
estimating functions in complex models. Moreover, we show that if the composite
score is suitably standardised, the resulting ABC procedure is invariant to
reparameterisations and automatically adjusts the curvature of the composite
likelihood, and of the corresponding posterior distribution. The method is
illustrated through examples with simulated data, and an application to
modelling of spatial extreme rainfall data is discussed.Comment: Statistics and Computing (final version
Recent Advances in Approximate Bayesian Computation Methods
The Bayesian approach to statistical inference in fundamentally probabilistic. Exploiting the internal consistency of the probability framework, the posterior distribution extracts the relevant information in the data, and provides a complete and coherent summary of post data uncertainty. However, summarising the posterior distribution often requires the calculation of awkward multidimensional integrals. A further complication with the Bayesian approach arises when the likelihood functions is unavailable. In this respect, promising advances have been made by theory of Approximate Bayesian Computations (ABC).
This thesis focuses on computational methods for the approximation of posterior distributions, and it discusses six original contributions. The first contribution concerns the approximation of marginal posterior distributions for scalar parameters. By combining higher-order tail area approximation with the inverse transform sampling, we define the HOTA algorithm which draws independent random sample from the approximate marginal posterior. The second discusses the HOTA algorithm with pseudo-posterior distributions, \eg, posterior distributions obtained by the combination of a pseudo-likelihood with a prior within Bayes' rule. The third contribution extends the use of tail-area approximations to contexts with multidimensional parameters, and proposes a method which gives approximate Bayesian credible regions with good sampling coverage properties. The forth presents an improved Laplace approximation which can be used for computing marginal likelihoods. The fifth contribution discusses a model-based procedure for choosing good summary statistics for ABC, by using composite score functions. Lastly, the sixth contribution discusses the choice of a default proposal distribution for ABC that is based on the notion of quasi-likelihood
Approximate Bayesian Computation by Modelling Summary Statistics in a Quasi-likelihood Framework
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a useful class of methods for
Bayesian inference when the likelihood function is computationally intractable.
In practice, the basic ABC algorithm may be inefficient in the presence of
discrepancy between prior and posterior. Therefore, more elaborate methods,
such as ABC with the Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm (ABC-MCMC), should be
used. However, the elaboration of a proposal density for MCMC is a sensitive
issue and very difficult in the ABC setting, where the likelihood is
intractable. We discuss an automatic proposal distribution useful for ABC-MCMC
algorithms. This proposal is inspired by the theory of quasi-likelihood (QL)
functions and is obtained by modelling the distribution of the summary
statistics as a function of the parameters. Essentially, given a real-valued
vector of summary statistics, we reparametrize the model by means of a
regression function of the statistics on parameters, obtained by sampling from
the original model in a pilot-run simulation study. The QL theory is well
established for a scalar parameter, and it is shown that when the conditional
variance of the summary statistic is assumed constant, the QL has a closed-form
normal density. This idea of constructing proposal distributions is extended to
non constant variance and to real-valued parameter vectors. The method is
illustrated by several examples and by an application to a real problem in
population genetics.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-BA921 in the Bayesian
Analysis (http://projecteuclid.org/euclid.ba) by the International Society of
Bayesian Analysis (http://bayesian.org/
Improved Laplace approximation for marginal likelihoods
Statistical applications often involve the calculation of intractable
multidimensional integrals. The Laplace formula is widely used to approximate
such integrals. However, in high-dimensional or small sample size problems, the
shape of the integrand function may be far from that of the Gaussian density,
and thus the standard Laplace approximation can be inaccurate. We propose an
improved Laplace approximation that reduces the asymptotic error of the
standard Laplace formula by one order of magnitude, thus leading to third-order
accuracy. We also show, by means of practical examples of various complexity,
that the proposed method is extremely accurate, even in high dimensions,
improving over the standard Laplace formula. Such examples also demonstrate
that the accuracy of the proposed method is comparable with that of other
existing methods, which are computationally more demanding. An R implementation
of the improved Laplace approximation is also provided through the R package
iLaplace available on CRAN.Comment: 24 page
A note on approximate Bayesian credible sets based on modified loglikelihood ratios
Asymptotic arguments are widely used in Bayesian inference, and in recent years there has been considerable developments of the so-called higher-order asymptotics. This theory provides very accurate approximations to posterior distributions, and to related quantities, in a variety of parametric statistical problems, even for small sample sizes.
The aim of this contribution is to discuss recent advances in approximate Bayesian computations based on the asymptotic theory of modified loglikelihood ratios, both from theoretical and practical point of views. Results on third-order approximations for univariate posterior distributions, also in the presence of nuisance parameters, are reviewed and a new formula for a vector parameter of interest is presented.
All these approximations may routinely be applied in practice for Bayesian inference, since they require little more than standard likelihood quantities for their implementation, and hence they may be available at little additional computational cost over simple first-order approximations. Moreover, these approximations give rise to a simple simulation scheme, alternative to MCMC, for Bayesian computation of marginal posterior distributions for a scalar parameter of interest. In addition, they can be used for testing precise null hypothesis and to define accurate Bayesian credible sets. Some illustrative examples are discussed, with particular attention to the use of matching priors
SERRS Multiplexing with Multivalent Nanostructures for the Identification and Enumeration of Epithelial and Mesenchymal Cells
Liquid biopsy represents a new frontier of cancer diagnosis and prognosis, which allows the isolation of tumor cells released in the blood stream. The extremely low abundance of these cells needs appropriate methodologies for their identification and enumeration. Herein we present a new protocol based on surface enhanced resonance Raman scattering (SERRS) gold multivalent nanostructures to identify and enumerate tumor cells with epithelial and mesenchimal markers. The validation of the protocol is obtained with spiked samples of peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC). Gold nanostructures are functionalized with SERRS labels and with antibodies to link the tumor cells. Three types of such nanosystems were simultaneously used and the protocol allows obtaining the identification of all individual tumor cells with the help of a Random Forest ensemble learning method